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ordinary intuition. All four elements together make expert intuition. That makes all the difference for success.
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More than a century after Napoleon, modern science began to unravel the mystery of expert intuition. Today we find a body of evidence far beyond what von Clausewitz was able to piece together.14 Sure enough, modern research confirms the four elements found in On War. The study of intuition began as a branch of psychology research in the middle of the twentieth century. In recent decades, medical research has chimed in, too, with studies of the biology of the brain. The result is a common notion that there are two types of decision making: rational versus intuitive, or analytical versus naturalistic, or left brain versus right brain. There is much debate on the details, including terminology and where in the brain different functions actually take place. But there is much consensus on the basic dichotomy of logic and intuition as two different modes of thought. Herbert Simon has been an important figure in this debate, through books and articles from the late 1940s through the 1970s. Among the many studies that won him the 1978 Nobel Prize in economics were Simon s examination of the difference between master and novice chess players. He tried to develop computer models that mimic expert decision making. For Simon, chess is semantically rich, in that an expert chess player knows a lot about the game. Chess may seem like a logic puzzle to nonplayers, but there is a vast amount of past expertise that you need to master in order to compete. There are various combinations of moves to learn that others developed before you, like the Dutch Stonewall Attack, the Staunton Gambit, or the Budapest Defense. Simon concludes that experts . . . behave very differently from novices in semantically rich domains. They see situations as similar, with similar solutions:
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In particular, recognition of familiar patterns is a major component of expert skill, and experts can consequently replace a great
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deal of heuristic search with solutions, or partial solutions, that they discover by recognition. Moreover, problem solving by recognition has all the characteristics of what is usually called intuitive, judgmental, or even creative problem solving.15
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Many other researchers, both contemporary with and after Simon, have contributed to the study of expert intuition. One of the most recent and important of these researchers is Gary Klein. Rather than watching chess players or conducting laboratory experiments in which subjects make decisions in situations that the researcher designs, Klein studied real decision makers in action: firefighters, emergency room nurses, and soldiers in battle. In all these fields, expertise can mean the difference between life and death. Klein interviewed his subjects about successful cases of rapid decision making. For example, a fire captain pulled his men out of a smoky building just before the floor collapsed, or an emergency room nurse snatched up an infant for instant treatment just in time to save the child. Klein asked them how they knew what to do. At first, they answered as we might expect: I don t know. It was just my intuition. But Klein kept at it. He asked them detailed questions about exactly what happened before and during their rapid decision. In every case, Klein was able to reconstruct what his subjects thought and did, and why. The answer was not just intuition, but expert intuition, very much as Simon described it. Because of their expertise, Klein s subjects saw something familiar that no one else saw. Klein concludes:16
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Intuition depends on the use of experience to recognize key patterns. . . . Experts can perceive things that are invisible to novices. . . . In the recognition-primed decision-making model (RPD), proficient decision makers . . . are able to detect patterns and typicality. They can size up a situation in a glance and realize that they have seen it, or variants of it . . . before. Their experience buys them the ability to recognize that a situation is a typical case.
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Klein s work stands out as the fullest study we have to date of coup d oeil in action. Note that he calls expert intuition
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