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recognition-primed decision-making, to emphasize that the decision depends on recognizing something from the past in the current situation. Klein also portrays goal setting in terms similar to those used by von Clausewitz. You don t choose a goal first and then take action. On the contrary, Klein tells us that the goal arises when you see that an action can succeed:
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What triggers active problem-solving is the ability to recognize when a goal is reachable.
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Klein notes that this sequence seems paradoxical in terms of the standard view of goal setting, which we now know came from Jomini. According to Klein, a strategist evaluates the chance of success of a course of action to determine whether to pursue that goal in the first place. And you can make that judgment based on what worked in the past:
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There must be an experiential ability to judge the solvability of problems prior to working on them. . . . Experience lets us recognize the existence of opportunities. When the opportunity is recognized, the problem solver working out its implications is looking for a way to make good use of it, trying to shape it into a reasonable goal.
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In expert intuition, then, the course of action precedes the goal. Klein notes that the decision maker sees an opportunity to succeed and turns that into a goal, in the same way that Napoleon fought a battle only when he saw a way to win it. If he did not see a way to win, he just kept moving. Although separated by more than a century and a half, Klein and von Clausewitz stand together as our leading scholars of coup d oeil. More and more researchers are coming to agree with Simon and Klein. For example, a recent review of research on intuition by Robin Hogarth supports all of Simon s and Klein s major conclusions and adds more evidence from other studies as well. As a result, People can be trained to develop their intuitive skills. That s what makes expert intuition expert. And so Hogarth titles his review Educating Intuition.17
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Yet science seldom speaks with one voice. We can find other research, especially in psychology, that seems to contradict the conclusions of Simon, Klein, and Hogarth. Let s take a closer look, to see if we can resolve the differences. We recall that Simon equated creative problem solving with expert intuition that combines familiar elements. Yet a large body of psychology research defines creativity as just the opposite: making something new. This body of research has little overlap with research on intuition, thanks to the different definition of creativity. For creativity, we also have a recent review of research, Handbook on Creativity, by Robert Sternberg, that mirrors Hogarth s review of research on intuition. Sternberg defines creativity as the ability to produce work that is both novel and appropriate. Creative work is original, unexpected, and useful. Of course, if you look for things that are novel and original, you won t find expert intuition. And yet, even in Sternberg s Handbook there is one dissenting view, by Robert Weisberg. In his own work, Weisberg studied specific creative achievements in the arts for example, by Picasso and found that in each case they combined elements from earlier artists. So for Weisberg,18
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The reason that one person produced some innovation, while another person did not, may be due to nothing more than the fact that the former knew something that the latter did not. Furthermore, this knowledge may not have been of an extraordinary sort.
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Or, as Sternberg puts it,
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Weisberg attempts to show that the insights depend on subjects using conventional cognitive processes (such as analogical transfer) applied to knowledge already stored in memory.
But the rest of Sternberg s review takes another path, that of creative imagination producing something new. So we might ask, does Sternberg find the secret Does the research he cites tell us how the creative imagination works Hardly. A concluding essay by Richard Mayer reads like a lament:19
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