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Yet Schumpeter thought that entrepreneurial behavior might decline because the economy would progressively bureaucratize itself and the element of personal intuition and force would be less essential than it was. But even in large firms, he noted that there were different colors to entrepreneurship, including setting up or organizing. That is, you might not have a superior product, but your coup d oeil might show you a way to run the business that would allow you to keep costs low and profits high. That too is a creative response. Note that Schumpeter does not say here that the creative response comes from past achievements. He does that in a later article, Change and the Entrepreneur, 3 where he says that new combinations rather than original inventions are the key product of an entrepreneur the way Jobs saw combining as the key to creative success, and the way Gates and Allen combined BASIC, their previous traffic program, and the Altair machine to make their new strategy. In a third article, Schumpeter tells us that innovation leads to imitation. For as soon as the success is before everyone s eyes, we find that everything is made very much easier. Thus, with much diminished difficulty, the success can now be copied, even improved upon, and a whole crowd invariably does copy it. So one entrepreneur leads to another, as they build on each other s success.4 If we put Schumpeter s three articles together, we find three of the four elements of expert intuition that von Clausewitz cited: coup d oeil, resolution, and examples from history. All that s missing is presence of mind. In a way, this is the easiest element to miss, for the creative response begins with coup d oeil, and presence of mind precedes it. That s why we find presence of mind more in philosophy than in economics: It is a state of mind rather than a phenomenon that you can observe. Schumpeter wrote more than 50 years ago. Do his views still hold up today For that we turn to a recent study of successful entrepreneurs. Sure enough, we see the same elements of expert intuition that Schumpeter praised so highly.
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48 T H E A R T O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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Creative Imitation
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From its start in 1979, Inc. has been the leading U.S. magazine on entrepreneurship. In 1981, the magazine created an Inc.-500 list of the fastest-growing privately held companies in the country, based on growth rates over the previous 5 years. For his study The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses, Amar Bhid interviewed founders of companies from the 1989 Inc. 500 list. He narrowed the list to companies founded in the previous 8 years in order to capture the earliest phase of a company s creation, and he ended up with a total of 100 companies to study. Bhid s study stands out in the strategy literature for two reasons. First, most books on business strategy give you principles to follow without providing much evidence that the principles work. Bhid , in contrast, presents the empirical results of actual strategy in action.5 Second, when other studies do report on actual strategy, they do not single out those strategies which are successful. They tell you what companies do, not how they succeed. Bhid , in contrast, studied not just strategy but successful strategy. Like Napoleon, he studied not just captains, but the great captains, in the same way that von Clausewitz studied Napoleon, the most successful captain of all, Kuhn studied successful scientists, and Klein studied successful decision makers. These two features of Bhid s study empirical results and success turn out to be rare in the strategy literature. That makes his results all the more precious for our main subject: the art of what works. Bhid found that only 6 percent of successful entrepreneurs claimed to have started with unique products or services. The Inc. founders he interviewed typically imitated someone else s ideas, and any innovations they made were incremental or easily replicated. These results overturn the conventional wisdom on how innovation happens. The entrepreneurs that Bhid studied were very creative, but they built on something that already worked. This takes us back to the distinction between the definitions of creativ-
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