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The Art of Success
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pany becomes large enough and certain enough to make planning a worthwhile investment. That s why corporations are more likely than individual entrepreneurs to find opportunities after a systematic search, to conduct extensive research and formulate careful plans, and to stick to their plans once an initiative has been launched. So big companies do not act like entrepreneurs and Bhid thinks that s a good thing:6
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This seemingly regimented approach does not reflect the incompetence or the bureaucratic tendencies of corporate executives, as their critics sometimes claim. Rather, it is a necessary consequence of the resources they control and the constraints they face.
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Bhid sees formal planning as a good and a necessary thing for a company. In Schumpeter s terms, Bhid seems to say that a firm grows from creative response to adaptive response. This is only right and proper: Everyone grows up sometime. But still we miss that frisky child as start-ups turn into corporations, we mourn the loss of expert intuition. Yet, must it be so Or is there a way to stay, like Peter Pan, forever young Let s remember that Bhid s book is an empirical study of successful entrepreneurs. For the corporate picture, he reverts to a statement of common practice, not an empirical study of success. Perhaps he would find the same thing on the corporate side if he studied corporate behavior the way he studied his entrepreneurs. After all, he overturned the conventional wisdom on entrepreneurship. Maybe he would do the same thing with corporate planning. Without such a study from Bhid , we must look elsewhere for evidence on expert intuition in larger firms. And, sure enough, we find it.
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Built to Last, by James Collins and Jerry Porras, was one of the leading studies of business strategy in the 1990s. In the fog of the dot.com and telecom booms, where the new pushed out the old every day, millions of readers peered through the fog to learn
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52 T H E A R T O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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from Built to Last what worked in the past. Like Bhid , Collins and Porras studied achievement. They looked at U.S. companies that had lasted that is, that remained successful throughout the twentieth century. Their initial list of companies came from a survey of 700 CEOs in August 1989. They asked each CEO to name 5 highly visionary firms, and then they took the top 20 of those named. From the 20 they knocked out 2 that were founded after 1950. The remaining 18 had a long history of success behind them. Their average founding date was 1897. Collins and Porras plotted stock prices for the 18 firms, and found that for the visionary firms the stock fund would have grown . . . over fifteen times the general market. So the CEOs had guessed right. These were very successful companies indeed. Built to Last aims to identify the underlying characteristics and dynamics common to highly visionary companies (and that distinguish them from other companies) and to translate these findings into a useful conceptual framework. Among the many lessons that come through, two stand out. First, successful companies have Big Hairy Audacious Goals. Second, they Try a Lot of Stuff and Keep What Works. At first glance, this seems to be a combination of Jomini and von Clausewitz: You set goals, but you also do what works. But which comes first In their conceptual framework, Collins and Porras put the goals first. That tilts them toward Jomini. But in the actual cases, what works comes first. That tilts them back toward von Clausewitz. Here, for example, they seem to favor expert intuition:
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In examining the history of the visionary companies, we were struck by how often they made some of their best moves not by detailed strategic planning, but rather by experimentation, trial and error, opportunism, and quite literally accident. What looks in hindsight like a brilliant strategy was often the residual result of opportunistic experimentation and purposeful accidents.
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Collins and Porras give three leading examples of this opportunistic strategy in action. Let s look at each example in turn, to see how expert intuition comes through in the details of the case.
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