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Johnson & Johnson was started in 1886. It made sterile, ready-touse medicated bandages that vastly reduced the infection rate from surgical procedures. Then in 1890, a doctor complained of skin irritation from the bandages. Fred Kilmer, the company s director of research, sent the doctor a packet of Italian talc. The doctor liked it. Kilmer then proposed that Johnson & Johnson include a small can of talc with some of its bandages as part of the standard package. Customers liked the talc and asked to buy it separately. That surprised the company, but it quickly agreed. The powder became a major product line, one that is famous to this day. Collins and Porras cite the official company history: The Johnsons got into the baby powder business quite by accident. This was surely a creative rather than an adaptive response, but was it really an accident It might have looked like one to the company as a whole, but how did it look to Kilmer himself The company was surprised, but he was not. He had a coup d oeil and the resolution to follow it through. The company had the good sense to follow his lead rather than stick to its previous plan. Yet expert intuition rather than accident is a better way to describe the path of success. Accidents happen to people. They are not something people do. But successful strategy is something you do, something that starts with coup d oeil.
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J. W. Marriott founded his company in 1927 as a root beer stand. Ten years later, he had a chain of 9 successful restaurants, which he planned to expand to 18 over the next 3 years. Then, on a regular tour of his chain, he found a surprise at restaurant number 8. This restaurant was next to Hoover Airport in Washington, D.C. Passengers were stopping at the restaurant to stock up on food to carry onto the plane. This was not the kind of information that showed up in reports to headquarters, so Marriott found out
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54 T H E A R T O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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about it only by chance, when he went there. The store manager explained that the airplane trade was growing bigger each day. Overnight, Marriott figured out what to do. The next day he went straight to Eastern Air Transport. Then and there he worked out an arrangement for the restaurant to deliver box lunches right to the planes, as part of ordinary flight preparation. The service grew quickly to 22 flights a day in just a few months. Over the years it spread to more than a hundred airports. It led Marriott to look for other opportunities in food service beyond his original restaurants. The result was a major business that led to hotel food, and then to hotels themselves. Collins and Porras praise Marriott for skipping a research and planning phase. He could have bogged down in long meetings and strategic analyses to decide what to do. Instead, Marriott made an incremental shift in corporate strategy by quick, vigorous action taken to seize upon a stroke of unexpected good luck. This is a clear case of von Clausewitz over Jomini. We can even pinpoint the night of Marriott s coup d oeil. As Schumpeter says, you can explain a creative response ex post, but you can t predict it ex ante. Collins and Porras seem to agree: The step looks brilliant in retrospect, but in reality was simply the result of an opportunistic experiment that happened to work out. Yet they also diminish Marriott s achievement: It was not really brilliant at all. He was just lucky. So again, as in the case of Johnson & Johnson, Collins and Porras suggest that success happens by chance. In expert intuition, it comes from skill and will, which Marriott showed in abundance.
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