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Copyright 2003 by William Duggan. Click Here for Terms of Use.
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4 T H E A RT O F E X P E RT I N T U I T I O N
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Not quite. There is an answer. It s just very different from what we expect. And it s been around for a very long time, since the first full scholarly study of strategy more than a century and a half ago. That study is On War by Carl von Clausewitz, published in 1832.2 Strategy began as a military science, and over the years it spread to other fields, especially business. Although military strategy goes back in time as long as war has existed, the scholarly study of strategy starts with von Clausewitz. The word strategy entered the English language only in 1810, at the height of Napoleon Bonaparte s military success.3 Napoleon won more battles than any other general in history, before or since. On War explains how he did it. Von Clausewitz uses a vivid term for imperfect information: the fog of war.
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The great uncertainty of all data in War is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not unfrequently like the effect of fog or moonshine gives to things exaggerated dimensions and an unnatural appearance.
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According to von Clausewitz, four key elements of strategy will help you make it through this fog of uncertainty. First, you enter the fog with presence of mind you expect the unexpected. Don t go in thinking that you already know what to do. Be ready for surprise. Second, you cut through the fog in a flash of insight. That flash is a coup d oeil,* which is French for glance. To von Clausewitz, a coup d oeil is the rapid discovery of a truth which in the ordinary mind is either not visible at all or only becomes so after long examination and reflection. Third, a strategist follows through on the coup d oeil with resolution. To von Clausewitz, resolution is removing the torments of doubt . . . when there are no sufficient motives for guidance. There is no way to prove that your coup d oeil is right, to
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*Pronounced koo-DOY.
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convince every doubter with facts and figures. Despite the doubts, you follow through. Fourth, the doubts are much reduced when strategy . . . turns to experience, and directs its attention on those combinations which military history can furnish. These combinations are the very content of the actual coup d oeil. You see in a flash a new combination based on what worked in the past. Presence of mind, coup d oeil, resolution, and combinations from history these four elements were the secrets of Napoleon s success. To von Clausewitz, they formed the essence of strategy that others could also use. Today, more than a century after von Clausewitz, modern research has given these four elements a growing body of scientific support, plus a modern name: expert intuition.4 Psychologists describe expert intuition as recognition-based decision making, where you see something similar from the past in the current situation. The greater your expertise, the more situations you see as familiar. A novice, in contrast, sees each situation as new and unique. Key scholars of expert intuition include Herbert Simon, who won the 1978 Nobel Prize in economics, and the psychologist Gary Klein, who studied firefighters, emergency room nurses, and soldiers in battle. We also find expert intuition in the science of science, the study of how scientists make their discoveries, as told by the great historian of science, Thomas Kuhn. Expert intuition shows up in philosophy, too, especially in the Pragmatism of William James and other leading scholars of his time. In The Metaphysical Club, Louis Menand tells how Pragmatism became America s core philosophy at the start of the twentieth century, when the country teemed with competing religions, cultures, and traditions from around the world. In the face of so many theories to choose from, Pragmatism tells you to pick whichever one works the best for you in your current situation. We find a similar strain in Eastern philosophy: Taoism in China and Zen in Japan. Expert intuition runs through two ancient Tao classics from the fifth century B.C., the Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu and The Art of War by Sun Tzu. Centuries later, Tao merged with Buddhism to become Zen. Japanese masters of crafts and martial
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