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The Art of Success
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Firms placing weight on the president s sixth sense rather than on objective information in strategic decision-making always showed better achievements. Many founder-presidents are found in small firms and have supposedly developed a highly attuned intuitive sense through experience.
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So here we have empirical evidence that the sixth sense yields better business results. Ohmae and Shimizu provide plenty of clues about expert intuition as a key to Japanese business success. American companies mostly missed these clues, but they did get the point about planning. Maybe they did not turn to von Clausewitz, but they did give up on Jomini. Here is Ohmae on planning:
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Detailed long-range planning coupled with tight control from the center is a remarkably effective way of killing creativity and entrepreneurship at the extremities of the organization, the individuals who make it up.
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Japanese firms rely instead on individual or group contributions and initiatives for improvement, innovation, and creative energy :
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The whole organization looks organic and entrepreneurial, as opposed to mechanistic and bureaucratic. . . . Actually, in my opinion, many Western corporations already suffer from too much strategic planning.
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This is the heart of the message that U.S. executives took from Japan. They set out to slash bureaucracy and promote innovation. But Ohmae also makes a related point that received less attention: how Japanese executives rise. Even graduates from the best schools begin on the shop floor. They learn the business from the ground up:
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This emphasis on actual experience underlies the pragmatism and provides the basis for the seemingly long-term orientation of
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Japanese executives, in contrast to the short-term analytical mentality of the West.
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Deep experience feeds expert intuition, or pragmatism, and allows for a long-term orientation, if not detailed long-range plans. And it helps keep coup d oeil tied to resolution. If you separate muscle from brain, you can t follow through on your strategy. All in all, Ohmae and many other writers helped U.S. corporations reduce bureaucracy and promote individual creativity throughout the 1980s and 1990s. We might see this as one great coup d oeil, with American industry seeing Japan s achievement and trying to do the same. Ironically, it seems that in the recent decades, Japan moved in the opposite direction creeping bureaucracy helped to bring about a recession that continues to this day.11
The GE Way
Among the many American successes in emulating the Japanese, General Electric stands out. It grew to become the world s most valuable corporation through the 1990s, with steady profits and an increasing stock price. Profits rose from $1.5 billion in 1980 to $12.7 billion in 2000, while the share price rose 21 percent per year over that same period, a rate that was 50 percent higher than that of the S&P 500. Jack Welch, the CEO from 1981 to 2001, became the world s most famous businessman. GE s success even contradicted the common wisdom that conglomerates make for the worst bureaucracies of all. Sure enough, expert intuition played a key role in GE s success. We have available to us published accounts of Welch s years at GE from Noel Tichy and Robert Slater. Tichy ran GE s in-house business school, the Crotonville Institute, in the mid-1980s. Slater is a business journalist who wrote a series of books on GE during the 1990s, with Welch s full cooperation. Tichy s and Slater s accounts together give us a full picture of the nearly two decades of Welch s tenure as head of GE. Tichy notes that in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Japanese companies were boosting productivity by 8% annually, while
The Art of Success
GE s productivity growth rarely topped 1.5%. From automobiles to laptop computers, consumers favored Japan s exciting new products. But before Welch, GE seemed unable to change. As Tichy tells us, Promoting innovation at GE felt like getting a root canal. There were controls for everything, from detailed monthly budget approvals to a mammoth strategic plan every year that ate up six to eight months of preparatory research and analysis. Good ideas did come up, but someone who had a good idea had to entomb it in a lengthy report and submit it to formal review by GE s strategic planners, who vetted budgets and most operating decisions. These inquisitions killed off most ideas. For those that made it through the gauntlet, it was usually too late: its moment of opportunity often had passed. So before Welch, GE was a company of Jomini planners. They fixed their objective points and set the troops marching. It seemed to matter little to them that their army was losing the war. Then along came Welch. He wanted to make the new GE systematically foster the creation of new ideas, the way the old GE had promoted the manufacture of products. And so the bureaucracy had to go. To make this change, Welch built on past achievement. First, he imitated Japan. Second, he drew from two successful GE companies that he had worked for on his way up. GE Plastics and GE Financial Services had grown fast and had stayed free of the bureaucracy that crippled other GE businesses. Plastics was a red-hot start-up venture that already had over $1 billion in sales. In Financial Services, you could invest $10 million on Monday and by Friday, if you thought the investment looked bad, you close the window and go home. As Welch explained, Everybody should work in a fast-growing business like Plastics or Financial Services. . . . A lot of managers don t know what a good business looks like. So Welch s expert intuition carried over to GE as a whole his earlier experience of what a good business looks like. But what did this mean as an overall strategy, beyond slashing bureaucracy
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