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Plan-to versus Can-do
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Note the sequence that Koch lays out. What comes first Thought. Then hypothesis and experimentation. Look what comes fourth: success. In the art of what works, success comes first. It launches strategy. You study success in similar situations, and that shows you the path to take. Koch s sequence follows a common view of the scientific method. Doesn t it start with thought No. As Kuhn, Bacon, and other scientists tell us, science starts with the successes of other scientists. You study what worked in the past, and a coup d oeil shows you what path to take next. Once again, we are back to the question of where a goal comes from in the first place. In Strategic Leadership, Sydney Finkelstein and Donald Hambrick ask it this way:12
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From where does the company s strategy come . . . Is it an incremental variation of the company s prior strategy Which in turn raises the question, from where did that strategy come
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Although Koch points to thought, his fellow scholars of the flexible school don t care very much where the strategy starts. It will only change anyway, right You end up at the right place, no matter where you start from. We find one reference to the contrary. In Strategic Flexibility, Kathryn Harrigan counsels companies to follow the lead of Mao Tse-tung, who conquered China against all odds:13
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Mao would not fight unless he saw an opportunity to seize an advantage. Mao s strategy was . . . fighting only when the chances of success were high, thereby avoiding battles he could not hope to win.
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So Mao fought just like Napoleon, and Harrigan, like von Clausewitz, counsels companies to do the same. Take action only when you see a chance for success. But overall, the school of strategic flexibility does not care much how strategy starts, and it does not tell you when to change your goal or activities. It tells you to be flexible, but it does not tell
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94 T H E A D V A N T A G E O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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you how to do that. It does not offer guidance on when to keep to your current strategy versus when to change, or on what makes a good change versus a bad. Expert intuition, in contrast, offers concrete counsel on all these fronts. It seems just as flexible, but the standard for change for a new goal, a new path is much, much higher. You change when you see a chance to combine what worked in the past. To see the contrast, let s take one of Mintzberg s examples.
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Honda Takes Off
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In Strategy Safari, Mintzberg tells a story of emergent strategy in action: Honda motorcycles in the American market. Let s see what the art of what works might add. Our story starts in the 1970s. The British government hired the Boston Consulting Group (known as BCG) to tell it why British motorcycle firms lost the American market to the Japanese in the early 1960s. BCG reported that the basic philosophy of Japanese manufacturers made all the difference. Their high volumes per model, plus capital intensive and highly automated techniques, yielded high productivity. Mintzberg notes that the BCG report was about experience curves and high market shares and carefully thought-out deliberate strategies. But is that how it really happened Mintzberg cites a 1984 article by Richard Pascale, who interviewed the Honda managers themselves.14 Pascale gives a very different view from that of BCG. The Honda managers told him that, in fact, they had no strategy other than seeing if they could sell something in the United States. Honda started in Los Angeles with big motorcycles, because that was what Americans rode. Britain too made big bikes, which sold well in the United States. But the Japanese bikes broke down. Americans drove motorcycles much faster and for much longer distances than the Japanese back home. But what about small bikes You found them all over Japan, but Honda did not try to sell them in the United States. The managers told Pascale that while small motorcycles were a smash suc-
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