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To see how that happens, let s return to the problem of strategy imperfect information, our fog of war. In the art of what works, a coup d oeil cuts through the fog. But other schools of strategy offer other solutions to the problem. Let s look at three of the leading schools: strategic planning, the learning organization, and competitive strategy. In the first school, classic strategic planning, you set a goal and plan activities that will enable you to reach it. If you keep to your plan, you ll reach your goal. But in The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, Henry Mintzberg warns against rigid adherence to plans.13 Instead, he favors emergent strategy, where you adjust your plans over time as new information emerges. Nowadays, most strategic planners agree with Mintzberg. James Quinn, for example, offers a similar view and calls it logical incrementalism. 14 The message: In the face of imperfect information, keep your strategy flexible. The second school of strategy, the learning organization, gives a different response to dealing with the fog of war: One person cannot possibly master enough information to develop a complex strategy, but a team can, so everyone in the system needs to work together. The best summary of this school remains The Fifth Discipline, by Peter Senge.15 And in Organizing Genius, Warren Bennis supports the idea with several case histories.16 The message: In the face of imperfect information, work as a team. The third school, competitive strategy, cuts through the fog of business with economic analysis. The leader of this school, Michael Porter, uses economic research and analysis to give a firm a better understanding of its economic position in an industry, with special emphasis on the positions of competitors throughout the entire value chain.17 The message: In the face of imperfect information, squeeze as much as you can from the information you have. Flexible planning, teamwork, and thorough analysis those are the answers given by the three leading schools of strategy. Thus, most businesses handle strategy in one of these ways, instead of using the art of what works. But there is really no contradiction. You can combine one or all of these schools with expert intuition. Von Clausewitz considered them all important. Napoleon mas-
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tered them, too. But in the end they cannot tell you what your strategy should be. Only expert intuition does that. But how The four elements of the art of what works presence of mind, coup d oeil, resolution, and examples from history translate into tools and techniques that you can apply in your own situation. The other schools of strategy offer their own tools and techniques, so the art of what works can do the same. Some tools use expert intuition directly. For example, bootstrapping involves making a rigorous study of what a successful strategist actually does, rather than asking the strategist to explain it something that strategists can never do very well. The Trotter matrix from General Electric attacks a strategic problem by engaging in a treasure hunt to find out whether anyone else in the world has made any progress in solving any part of the problem. A what-works scan applies grounded theory to basic strategy research. And last but not least, the normal science version of the scientific method is very much like the art of what works.18 We can also add elements of expert intuition to tools from other schools of strategy. For example, an exercise in strategic planning or a team dialogue session in the learning organization often begins with the question, What is our vision That s fine. In the art of what works, however, we arrive at that vision by asking first, What works The vision comes second, after you see what path can lead to success. That avoids developing a vision that you have no way to reach. As another example, in competitive strategy, you analyze the five forces that determine your competitive position: direct competitors, suppliers, customers, potential entrants, and substitutes. In the art of what works, these five forces also become five sources, where you look for things that others are doing right and that you might do as well. The result is creative imitation based on what you find. Competitive analysis gives you the lay of the land, but it does not tell you what path to take. Only a coup d oeil, based on what worked in the past, does that. Using the principles of expert intuition, examples from business history, and practical methods is how you learn the art of
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