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10 T H E A R T O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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what works. In the chapters that follow, we study these principles, examples, and methods in greater detail. At all times, we look first for other observers who came before. This is the first book to apply recent advances in expert intuition to the art of strategy, but the basic idea is as old as mankind. It s the ancient secret of success. This book itself follows the art of what works. We take what others have found before us and make a new combination. The book reveals for the first time in one volume what many people from many fields have always known. In some ways, then, it speaks the unspoken. Successful people are like magicians: They put on quite a show, but they seldom reveal their secrets. But magicians know each other s tricks. This book lets everyone in on the secret: how success really happens. And by using prior sources, it speaks with authority, derived from the work of dozens who came before us. Yet our method is more a treasure hunt than statistical research. We look for gems and pass up more than we find. For example, we pick out just one quote from everything that Leonardo da Vinci said through the years. It takes a lot of sifting. But now and then, we strike gold. Here you find the results of much searching. It saves you the time needed to do your own searching. You will find that these results apply to all kinds of business situations, and even to other parts of your life. Some of our sources straddle self-help and business; after all, Americans buy more books on self-improvement than on any other subject, and most Americans work in business. Strategy applies to both business and life to a strong and equal degree. In this personal realm, the art of what works offers nothing new. It offers something old: from ancient China to postwar Japan, from Napoleon Bonaparte to Jack Welch, from Microsoft to Nokia, from General Motors to General Electric. We find there not new ideas, but timeless truths, for work, for life, and even for love. That s right, the quest for personal happiness can also benefit from the art of success. When you see what you can do and then
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Introduction
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set off to do it, no pleasure on earth is greater. Think of what you like to do best, or would like to do, then think of its going wrong. Now think of its going right. Successful action fills your heart with joy. And even when the fog is too thick, when you can t yet see what to do, the art of what works still applies. Here is the earliest written trace, from the Tao Te Ching in the fifth century B.C.:
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Do you have the patience to wait Til your mud settles and the water is clear Can you remain unmoving Til the right action arises by itself
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Study. Learn. Practice. Have patience. Keep your eyes open. Your coup d oeil will come.
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CHAPTER
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An Eye for What Works
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Expert Intuition in Strategy
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we study the four key elements of expert intuition in strategy and decision making: presence of mind, coup d oeil, resolution, and examples from history. The four elements come from On War by Carl von Clausewitz, the first scholarly study of strategy,1 but we find them in many other sources from other fields as well.
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N THIS CHAPTER,
The Problem of Intuition
In his autobiography, Grinding it Out, Ray Kroc tells how he founded the great McDonald s empire:2
It was a restaurant stripped down to the minimum service and more, the prototype for legions of fast-food units that later would spread across the land. Hamburgers, fries, and beverages were prepared on an assembly line basis, and, to the amazement of everyone, Mac and Dick included, the thing worked! Of course, the simplicity of the procedure allowed the McDonalds to concentrate on quality in every step, and that was the trick. When I saw
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