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182 T H E A P P L I C A T I O N O F E X P E R T I N T U I T I O N
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Yet as we look more closely, we find that game theory takes us only as far as Porter s competitive strategy. It s a method of analysis, not of decision making. For example, Co-opetition presents the case of rebate programs, like GM s partnership with Household Bank and MasterCard, which lets customers build up a rebate through ordinary credit card purchases. The GM Card was the most successful rollout ever in the credit card business. Other car companies copied it right away, with positive and negative effects for GM. So Coopetition gives this lesson for rebates:
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PROs: 1. Allows you to charge your own customers low prices without threatening your rival s customer base. 2. Encourages customers even price shoppers to become loyal. 3. Creates synergies with credit card partners. CONs: 1. Rewarding loyalty in cash rather than kind, doesn t raise your added value. 2. Is ineffective on small-ticket items.
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These are good lessons, and the GM Card story gives you plenty of details to copy or avoid in your own case. Yet if you re considering a rebate program, game theory cannot tell you whether or how to do it. It can only show you the various options and the trade-offs involved in each one. The final decision is up to you. So how do you decide By coup d oeil. Like Porter s work, Co-opetition gives many detailed cases to feed your expert intuition. For example, we watch the complex bidding for LIN Broadcasting, in which surprising players win and lose. And we find the pros and cons of many other cooperative tactics in addition to rebates, such as most-favored-customer and meet-the-competition clauses and take-or-pay contracts. We even find that win-win strategies deserve direct imitation, whereas competitive strategy rules them out because it deals only with win-lose situations. A win-win example is frequentflyer programs. American Airlines started the first such program,
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and its competitors quickly copied it. Overall, the programs made customers more loyal, so all the airlines were able to raise their prices. Under competitive strategy, in contrast, a frequent-flyer program gives American no unique advantage because others can easily imitate it, and so it is not a wise move. Co-opetition provides a good balance to competitive strategy, but both are still cut from the same cloth: analysis rather than decision making. Both still need coup d oeil in order to make decisions. To use game theory in the art of what works: Identify your current and potential customers, competitors, suppliers, and complementors. For each player, identify the options for cooperating or competing. For each option, study cases of how it turned out in similar situations. When you see a case of success in a situation similar to yours, study it further for possible emulation.
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In 5, we saw how the Trotter matrix at GE provided a group method of using expert intuition to develop strategy. Let s study an example in greater detail. Figure 7.3 is based on an actual case from GE s Crotonville Institute in the late 1990s.27 The strategic question was how to move to on-line retail sales of appliances. GE had no retail sales of appliances at the time. It sold wholesale to big retailers like Sears. The Internet offers great advantages for reaching customers directly. But Sears might see on-line sales as direct competition. So what should GE do The procedure is this: Your team starts a Trotter matrix. You write the problem up at the top. It will probably change as you go along. The team determines the rows by asking the question, What do we have to do well for successful on-line sales Again, this list will change. The columns of the matrix cover wherever
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