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The repurchase rate is further complicated by the fact that Asian has many different models of cars, and each model has its own unique repurchase rate. The goal for any automobile company is to have a repurchase rate of more than 100 percent. How would that be possible It would occur if customers never died, if they always bought the same brand when they turned in their existing vehicle, and if many of them bought two or more cars. For the automobile industry as a whole, the repurchase rate is about 35 percent. The goal is to determine the repurchase rate for every Asian model and for owners of used Asian cars as well. To accomplish this, it is necessary to develop some tables from the database that illustrate the situation. Such tables should begin with a particular year, such as 1997. You can then determine what Asian cars the owners of 1997 models owned in the summer of 2002. Next, you create the same tables for the owners of 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 models. Finally, you have to create similar tables for Certi ed Previously Owned (CPO) Asian cars Asian cars that were bought used. These data are usually available because manufacturers require their dealers to report the owners of each new and each used Asian. This information is stored in Asian s database. Table 4-1 shows what the 1997 Asian owners owned in the year 2002. From these data, one would assume that the repurchase rate varied from 22 to 38 percent, but that is not the case. To get the real repurchase rates, you have to gure in the Asian owners who bought cars every year, every 2 years, and so on. The numbers shown in Table 4-1 mask the fact that in the 5 years between 1997 and 2002, a signi cant Table 4-1 Changes in Ownership over the Years
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Chart A Totals A Model 17,472 14,133 4,003 980 1,729 651 396 247 23% B Model 53,259 38,950 11,666 6,221 1,040 3,047 838 521 22% C Model 26,784 19,585 7,861 1,464 565 3,924 1,267 641 29% D Model 17,646 14,111 6,619 802 382 844 4,126 466 38% E Model 452 339 146 24 20 26 57 19 32% Owned 1997 120,409 Owned 2002 91,875 Bought new 30,295 A Model 9,491 B Model 3,735 C Model 8,491 D Model 6,684 E Model 1,893 Repurchase rate 25%
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number of people bought two, three, or more new cars from the company and resold them, and many purchased multiple vehicles and kept them. Dozens of charts are needed to measure and account for the varying behavior of customers. Overall, the picture that emerged was of the average Asian customer buying a new car every 3 years because of the expiration of the lease and loan arrangements. The raw numbers have to be converted into adjusted numbers as shown in Table 4-2. Putting the numbers from all years together gives us the results shown in Table 4-3. From Table 4-3, we are able to go on to compute the automobile owners lifetime value. The lifetime value chart for the B Model is shown in Table 4-4. Table 4-4 needs some explanation. In the rst place, the data showed that the repurchase rate tended to go up for long-term Asian car owners. Long-term owners tend to be more loyal than newer owners. The $4000 pro t per car is the pro t to Asian, not the pro t to the Asian dealer. Asian is actually selling cars to dealers, not to the general public. The acquisition cost per car was the amount per car that Asian spent on co-op ads and other promotions. Each dealer, of course, had its own Table 4-2 Adjusted Repurchase Rates
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Totals A Model B Model C Model D Model E Model Raw Totals 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 25.16% 24.00% 16.00% 7.00% 4.00% 22.91% 16.00% 11.00% 5.00% 4.00% 21.90% 23.00% 16.00% 6.00% 3.00% 29.35% 26.00% 14.00% 6.00% 4.00% 37.51% 35.00% 23.00% 8.00% 5.00% 32.28% 17.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
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Adjusted Totals 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total 0.33 0.5 1 1 2 5 7.90% 11.50% 15.80% 7.00% 7.90% 0.10% 7.40% 8.20% 10.90% 5.20% 7.20% 39.00% 6.00% 11.30% 16.10% 5.60% 6.10% 45.20% 11.00% 13.10% 14.10% 6.40% 7.10% 51.60% 12.70% 17.40% 22.60% 8.00% 9.90% 70.60% 10.90% 8.50% 20.00% 20.00% 40.00% 71.00%
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