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Relationship building does not need to stop with moving the B Model repurchase rate up to 50 percent. In fact, there is much more that you could do with the lifetime value analysis in this situation. The tables given so far have assumed that the average Asian customer buys or leases a new car every 3 years and, in fact, that is the case. What it ignores, however, is the fact that there are a substantial number of Asian customers who buy new cars every year or every 2 years. What will be the impact of the retention-building programs on these people Detailed studies of the Asian database showed the following: Six percent of Asian B Model owners bought a new car every year. Six percent of Asian B Model owners bought a new car every 2 years. The overall increase in sales due to the new program will affect not just the third-year totals, but the interim-year totals as well, because your communication strategies will affect these 1- and 2-year buyers and get them to improve their repurchase rates. There is an extra 1.2 percent increase in sales in addition to the overall 5 percent increase (from 45 to 50 percent), for a total increase of 6.2 percent. Plugging that 6.2 percent increase into the tables raises the $56 million to $73 million. But that s not all.
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In the LTV analysis, it is also necessary to consider automobile nancing. Like most car companies, Asian runs an automobile leasing and nance business as well. This is a pro table business for Asian. If we are going to increase the repurchase rate of Asian automobiles, we will also automatically increase the pro ts from leases and nancing. To see how this is calculated, let s look at a baseline automobile leasing lifetime value table (see Table 4-8). There are some interesting new rows on this table. Asian does not get to nance every Asian car that is sold, of course. The nancing really depends on the market at the particular dealership. There are
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Table 4-8 Car Leasing LTV
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Revenue Repurchase rate Re nance rate Retention rate Customers Amount nanced by lease Total amount nanced Income before taxes Total income before taxes Costs Acquisition cost Marketing costs ($12) Total marketing & sales Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value Years 1 3 45.20% 62.00% 28.00% 100,000 $30,000 $3,000,000,000 $1,452.22 $145,222,000 Years 4 6 47.90% 64.00% 30.70% 28,000 $32,000 $896,000,000 $1,582.92 $44,321,754 Years 7 9 49.90% 66.00% 32.90% 8,596 $34,000 $292,264,000 $1,725.38 $14,831,389
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1,680,000 336,000 2,016,000
$ $ $
515,760 103,152 618,912
$138,022,000 1 $138,022,000 $138,022,000 $1,380.22
$ 42,305,754 1.33 $ 31,808,838 $169,830,838 $1,698.31
$ 14,212,477 1.64 $ 8,666,144 $178,496,982 $1,784.97
hundreds of banks and nance companies in the auto leasing and loan business. Asian will get the nancing only if it has a good offer and the dealer pushes the sale. Asian has determined that it gets the nancing in only 62 percent of the new car purchases. For that reason, a repurchase rate of 45.2 percent of cars translates into a 28 percent retention rate for leases or loans. To get the dealers to insist on Asian nancing, Asian has to make it worth their while. It does this by paying the dealer a premium of $60 per lease or loan as a commission. That is shown here as the lease acquisition cost. In addition, Asian contacts its customers with a welcome kit and other communications to ensure that customers appreciate the value of Asian nancing and will use Asian again when the time comes. Asian spends $12 per customer every 3 years on communications to improve the customer retention rate. The discount rate for automobile nancing is different from that for automobile sales. With automobile sales, the discount rate is based on a business-to-business sale of cars to dealers, in which the manufacturer sometimes has to wait for the dealer to pay. With automobile nancing, the discount rate is based on business-to-consumer nancing. The
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