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payments by the consumers are immediate (unless some promotion is involved), so the waiting period is less, but the risk factor is slightly higher. The nal result is that each new customer who buys an Asian automobile and nances it with Asian returns about $1785 to Asian over 9 years in the form of pro t from nancing. What will happen to that nancing pro t if Asian does boost the repurchase rate of B Model cars from 45.2 percent to 51.2 percent (adding the growth from sales during the 3-year period to the growth to 50 percent) The results are shown in Table 4-9. The net increase in long-term pro t to Asian is almost $7 million over 9 years (see Table 4-10). And Asian did not have to do anything unusual to get this increase. Adding the pro ts from the sales of new cars to the pro ts from the nancing, the total pro t from the relationship-building program Table 4-9 Improved Lease LTV
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Revenue Repurchase rate Re nance rate Retention rate Customers Amount nanced by lease Total amount nanced Income before taxes Total income before taxes Costs Acquisition cost Marketing costs ($12) Total marketing & sales Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value Years 1 3 51.20% 62.00% 31.74% 100,000 $30,000 $3,000,000,000 $1,452.22 $145,222,000 Years 4 6 54.20% 64.00% 34.69% 31,744 $32,000 $1,015,808,000 $1,582.92 $50,248,206 Years 7 9 57.20% 66.00% 37.75% 11,011 $34,000 $374,386,196 $1,725.38 $18,998,807
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$ 47,962,638 1.33 $ 36,062,134 $174,084,134 $1,740.84
$ 18,205,989 1.64 $ 11,101,213 $185,185,347 $1,851.85
Table 4-10 Lease LTV Gain
Improvement in LTV New LTV Previous LTV Difference Times 100,000 customers Years 1 3 $1,380.22 $1,380.22 $0.00 $0.00 Years 4 6 $1,740.84 $1,698.31 $42.53 $4,253,296 Years 7 9 $1,851.85 $1,784.97 $66.88 $6,688,364
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should come to approximately $80 million ($73 million plus $7 million) over 9 years. This is the way lifetime value is used to determine the value of relationship-building programs. That is not the end of the lifetime value story for Asian, however.
Used-Car Owners Buy New Cars
The repurchase data developed for Asian produced some unanticipated results concerning Asian used-car owners. Many car companies do not consider the LTV of used-car owners in their marketing programs. The conventional wisdom concerning used-car owners is that they do not represent a value to the manufacturer. After all, the manufacturer made its pro t when the car was originally sold to the dealer. When the car returns to the dealer as a trade-in, the dealer makes the pro t on the resale of the vehicle. When you look at the performance of owners of used Asian cars, however, you nd something very interesting (see Table 4-11). This table shows just one year. As you can see, 6275 of the owners of used Asian cars in 1997 bought new Asian cars by 2002. Similar charts were developed for each year. Putting them together, the nal result was that in the average year, 6400 owners of Asian used cars purchased a brand new Asian. The owners of Asian used cars were, in fact, the greatest single prospect group for the purchase of new vehicles other than new Asian car owners. Lifetime value is forward-looking. It does not deal with the past. We are asking, How much pro t will you make from these people over a Table 4-11 New-Car Purchases by Used-Car Owners
Used Asian Owned in 1997 Owned in 1997 Asian bought by 2002 New A Model New B Model New C Model New D Model New E Model Totals 63,761 6,275 2,467 801 1,642 1,094 475 A Model 32,777 2,558 1,670 242 583 132 147 B Model 3,691 828 173 295 73 53 41 C Model 16,065 1,759 372 149 692 166 147 D Model 10,545 1,111 236 107 265 705 120 E Model 684 19 16 9 29 39 19
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