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Table 4-12 LTV of Used-Car Owners
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Years 1 3 Revenue Repurchase rate Customers Net pro t per car Net revenue Costs Acquisition cost per car Acquisition cost Marketing costs ($50/yr) Total marketing & sales Pro t Discount rate NPV of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 51.20% 6400 $4000 $25,600,000 Years 4 6 54.20% 3277 $4000 $13,107,200 Years 7 9 57.20% 1776 $4000 $7,104,102
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$200 $1,280,000 $ 320,000 $1,600,000 $24,000,000 1.11 $21,621,622 $21,621,622 $3378.38
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$200 $655,360 $163,840 $819,200 $12,288,000 1.31 $ 9,380,153 $31,001,774 $4844.03
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$200 $355,205 $ 88,801 $444,006 $ 6,660,096 1.54 $ 4,324,738 $35,326,512 $8831.63
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period of time When you ask the question this way, it is clear that usedcar owners have a lifetime value for Asian. We calculated the number of Asian cars that typical Asian car owners were buying each year. By knowing the pro t to Asian from the cars they were buying, it was possible to calculate the lifetime value to Asian of owners of used Asian cars, which is shown in Table 4-12. This shows that the owner of a used Asian car has a lifetime value to Asian of $8832 over 9 years. What can you do with this information You can use it to calculate the value to Asian of programs designed to increase purchases of used Asian vehicles by members of the general public. A program that was previously considered to be something that would help the Asian dealers is actually pro table for the manufacturer and probably deserves more effort than has previously been expended on it.
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Use of Lifetime Value Data
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Lifetime value has been adopted by companies of every type throughout the developed world as a means of valuing their customers and directing their marketing programs. It is not that dif cult to compute if you have a
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database that contains transaction history, and if you can determine the revenue and costs involved in those transactions. The real value of lifetime value is not in the numbers, but in the use that is made of the numbers. Without imaginative strategies, the LTV numbers are useless. Throughout this book, we will be using lifetime value tables to evaluate the effectiveness of various relationship-building strategies. Most lifetime value tables cover only 3 or 4 years. It is only in the automobile and similar industries (farm vehicles, trucks, capital equipment), where there is a lease or loan arrangement that typically lasts 3 or 4 years, that we have 9-year tables like those shown in this chapter. Once lifetime value has been calculated, it can be put into every customer s database record. The numbers will be different for each individual. Here is how they are calculated. Owners of 2002 B Model cars will have one value. Owners of 2003 B Model cars will have another value. This reasoning applies to the owners of every Asian model in every year, and to every used Asian model. It applies to Asian lease and loan holders. People who own two or more cars have the values of these cars added together. The nal result is a unique LTV number for every customer based on everything that customer owns. None of this takes into account the demographics of the customers. Is the LTV of a 50-year-old customer different from the LTV of a 30year-old customer How would you discover that The answer lies in the different repurchase rates for different age groups. Instead of looking at only the LTV by model, we can look at it both by model and by age group. We can look at the LTV of women versus the LTV of men. We can look at the LTV of people living in the Northeast versus those living on the West Coast. We can look at the differing LTVs of white, black, and Hispanic owners. Where do we stop in our calculations We have to consider two things: 1. Do the demographics result in signi cant differences 2. If so, can we use these differences to craft different relationshipbuilding strategies that will improve the repurchase rate The rst question can be answered in short order by an analysis of the database going back 6 years. We can tell pretty rapidly whether older
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