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To compute lifetime value, you need a customer database that includes transactions. You need to be able to estimate the revenue and the costs in order to compute the pro t from each transaction. You use past history to determine the retention (or repurchase) rate.
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Lifetime value can at rst be computed for all customers as a group, but once it has been developed, it should be determined for customer segments. The LTV of an individual customer is derived from the LTV of the segment that includes that customer, adjusted for the products the customer owns and other factors that seem to determine the customer s particular LTV. Lifetime value produces numbers that can eventually be audited after the fact. A year later, you can go back and see what the retention (repurchase) rate was; what the spending rate was; what the marketing expenditures, the pro ts, and the discount rate were. It is not smoke and mirrors.
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Computing LTV using complex formulas that your top management does not understand. If your management doesn t understand exactly how you developed it, it will have no con dence in it and will not use it pro tably. Looking at LTV numbers by themselves. An LTV number by itself is meaningless. Its most important use is in calculating whether proposed marketing programs will increase or decrease lifetime value. Spending resources on getting an exact lifetime value number. LTV is a future number. The future has so many unknown factors that you should use LTV as a rough guide: Do this, and don t do that. That is all it is good for.
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1. Compute the discount rate in the third year. Interest rate 6 percent. Risk factor 1.4. 2. Use this number to compute the net present value of pro ts in the third year, if the pro ts are $45,447,221.
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3. Compute the retention rate for years 1 and 2 in the following table, given the number of customers shown.
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Year 1 Customers Retention rate 312,886 Year 2 219,445 Year 3 188,994
4. If a company has a retention rate in the second year of 60 percent, what will selling an additional product to the customer in that year do to the retention rate in the third year compared to what it would have been a. Make it go up. b. Make it go down. c. Not enough information is given to know one way or the other. d. It depends on the discount rate. e. It depends on the lifetime value. 5. Which is more important in determining potential lifetime value a. The probability of the customer s buying an additional product b. The pro tability of the customer s buying that product c. Current lifetime value d. Both a and b e. None, since potential lifetime value cannot be predicted 6. What is the best way for marketing to justify its annual budget a. Movement in the discount rate b. Movement in the lifetime value in future years c. Movement in the potential lifetime value of prospects d. Reduction in the retention rate e. None of the above 7. What is the next best product for a customer a. The one with the most margin for the seller. b. The one with the highest probability of a sale. c. This cannot be known in advance. d. The one with the highest value to the company, which is determined by multiplying the probability of purchase and the pro tability if purchased. e. The one with the highest lifetime value if purchased.
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8. If analysis shows that LTV will go down in future years, what should you do a. Revise your marketing program. b. Redo your LTV tables, since future LTV always goes up. c. Revise the discount rate. d. Add more marketing dollars. e. Reduce the retention rate. 9. Suppose you have two segments. Segment A has an LTV of $150 in 3 years, and segment B has an LTV of $200 in 3 years. What should your strategy be a. Work to retain segment B and increase the LTV of segment A. b. Get rid of segment A and nd more people that t into segment B. c. You can t decide based on what we know at present. d. Retain both, since the LTV is positive. e. None of the above.
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