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Table 5-5 Value of a Name
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Amounts Offering price Marketing costs Net revenue Sales per year Value of a name $0.07 25% $0.053 3 $0.158
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As you can see, this type of analysis is not dif cult to do. It should be done before any business is created. If it had been done by the thousands of dot coms that were set up during the boom, we might not have had the dot com wipeout and the stock market crash. Let s hope we see some sharp-pencil accounting in the future when cool ideas are oated to venture capitalists.
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The lifetime value chart shown in Table 5-2 is typical of standard lifetime value charts. The details of such charts are spelled out in 4. A lifetime value chart has many uses. It can be used to determine How much to spend on acquisition of customers How much to spend on retention programs How much to spend on referral programs The payoff from particular marketing strategies The rental value of a name The value of a company, based on its acquired customer base Which groups of customers you should try to retain, acquire, or discard And many other things Let s try to determine the value of a name in a business-to-business setting. Assume we have a company that sells chemicals to industrial users. Let s call our company WardChem. We have about 45,000 customers who spend from $5000 to $500,000 per year on chemicals. The average order is $2500, and the average customer buys from us eight times a year. Later we will break our customers down into segments
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(low-volume, medium-volume, high-volume, etc.), but for now, we will lump them all together into a single lifetime value table (Table 5-6), so that we can understand the principles involved. We are assuming newly acquired customers in year 1 and examining their performance over the next 3 years. The retention rate is the percentage of customers that remain from year to year. As we can see, WardChem loses 30 percent of its newly acquired customers after the rst year. It does better in subsequent years, with the retention rate rising to 80 percent in the third year. Retained customers are those same customers in their rst, second, and third years with WardChem. New customers who arrive in year 2 or year 3 are not shown here. The year they arrive is their year 1. Let us assume that WardChem retains a base of about 45,000 customers. It does this by losing 9000 customers and gaining 9000 new ones every year. We are studying the history of the retained customers. The average order size tends to grow every year. This is typical of all corporations. The number of orders per year also tends to grow. The cost percent is a rough number that estimates the average Table 5-6 Lifetime Value for Wardchem
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Year 1 Retention rate Retained customers Average order Orders per year Total revenue Cost rate Variable costs Acquisition cost ($1,400) Retention costs ($90/yr) Total costs Gross pro t Discount rate Net present value of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 70% 45,000 $2,500 8 $900,000,000 75% $675,000,000 $ 63,000,000 $ 4,050,000 $742,050,000 $157,950,000 1.01 $155,779,959 $155,779,959 $3,462 Year 2 75% 31,500 $2,700 9 $765,450,000 71% $543,469,500 0 $ 2,835,000 $546,304,500 $219,145,500 1.09 $200,894,344 $356,674,303 $7,926 Year 3 80% 23,625 $2,900 10 $685,125,000 69% $472,736,250 0 $ 2,126,250 $474,862,500 $210,262,500 1.17 $179,159,636 $535,833,940 $11,907
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percentage of the selling price of company products that goes for manufacturing, distribution, and other costs. The balance is pro t or marketing costs. The acquisition cost is computed by adding together all the expenses involved in acquiring new customers during a given year advertising on TV, radio, print, and direct mail; sales force salaries, commissions, and bonuses and dividing that total by the number of customers actually acquired during that year. The retention costs are those costs spent to keep customers happy and buying. This could include an annual retreat, customer communications, or customer services. The discount rate is used to compute the net present value of the pro ts received. Money that will arrive in 1 year or 2 years is obviously not as valuable today as money that arrives today. The discount rate is a number that puts all these amounts on the same basis so that they can be added together. As discussed in earlier chapters, the formula for the discount rate is D (1 i * rf )waiting time
In this formula, i is the interest rate that the company pays for money rf is the risk factor (the risk that the money will not materialize at all) The waiting time is the length of time you have to wait before the money arrives. With consumers, this is usually 0 for the rst year, 1 year for the second year, and so on. With business-to-business selling, the picture is different. Most business-to-business customers pay in 30, 60, or 90 days. So the waiting time is determined by adding these periods to the years. Table 5-7 is a simple chart that is used for calculating the discount rate of a business-to-business situation. The net present value of pro ts is the gross pro ts divided by the discount rate. The cumulative NPV of pro ts is calculated by adding the pro ts from previous years to this year s pro ts.
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