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Table 5-7 Discount Rate Calculation
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Year 1 Years to wait Interest rate Risk factor Accounts receivable days Discount rate 0 6.80% 1.1 70 1.01 Year 2 1 6.80% 1.1 75 1.09 Year 3 2 6.80% 1.1 80 1.17
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The customer lifetime value is calculated by dividing the cumulative NPV of pro ts in each year by the total number of newly acquired customers in this case, 45,000. In this example, newly acquired customers are worth $11,907 in their third year with WardChem.
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Calculating LTV for customers as a whole is useful. Calculating the LTV of customer segments is even more useful. An automobile company may nd that the LTV of various models may be quite different, as shown in 4. Two factors, in general, are responsible for the difference: 1. The manufacturer s pro t per car 2. The repurchase rate With that knowledge, it is possible to determine the additional total pro t that a company would earn if the repurchase rate could be modi ed by changing the behavior of customers. This knowledge can lead to the development of marketing programs aimed at particular customer segments.
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All the factors in a lifetime value table can be in uenced by marketing programs: the average order size, the number of orders per year, and the retention rate. To see the way this works, let s focus on only one
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factor, the retention rate, and see what would happen if WardChem could increase that rate by 5 percent an achievable goal for most companies. Let s see how WardChem could go about it. It could set up a relationship-building team for its top customers. It could provide a much higher level of customer service. It could set up a super-customized Web page for each customer. It could put thousands of pages of technical information about its chemicals on the Web for its customers (only) to use.
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Let s assume that the cost of all these additional relationship-building activities is about $110 per customer per year, or about $5 million. There could be two results: The retention rate might go up by 5 percent, and the number of orders might go up by one-half order per year. Table 5-8 shows what could happen. Lifetime value in the third year has gone up from $11,907 to $13,362. What does that mean for WardChem in terms of pro ts As Table 5-9 shows, it means more than $65 million more pro ts after taking into account the extra $5 million per year spent on relationshipbuilding activities. Table 5-8 Revised Lifetime Value
Year 1 Retention rate Retained customers Average order Orders per year Total revenue Cost rate Variable costs Acquisition cost ($1,400) Retention costs ($200/yr) Total costs Gross pro t Discount rate Net present value of pro t Cumulative NPV of pro t Lifetime value 75% 45,000 $2,500 8.5 $956,250,000 75% $717,187,500 $ 63,000,000 $ 9,000,000 $789,187,500 $167,062,500 1.01 $164,767,265 $164,767,265 $3,661 Year 2 80% 33,750 $2,700 9.5 $865,687,500 71% $614,638,125 0 $ 6,750,000 $621,388,125 $244,299,375 1.09 $223,953,322 $388,720,586 $8,638 Year 3 85% 27,000 $2,900 10.5 $822,150,000 69% $567,283,500 0 $ 5,400,000 $572,683,500 $249,466,500 1.17 $212,564,425 $601,285,011 $13,362
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Table 5-9 Gains through Retention-Building Activities
New LTV Old LTV Difference Times 45,000 customers Year 1 $3,661 $3,462 $200 $8,987,305 Year 2 $8,638 $7,926 $712 $32,046,283 Year 3 $13,362 $11,907 $1,454 $65,451,072
Lifetime value charts like these are used in calculating the value of a name. They are very powerful predictors of success in database marketing.
The Value of an Email Name
A name and address with the matching email name and permission to use it can be a very valuable commodity much more valuable than a simple name and address. There are many reasons why this is so: It is far cheaper to send email communications than direct-mail communications, so you save money on each communication. Since emails are so cheap and so fast, you can undertake many communications that you simply could not do at all with direct mail. Using emails, you can build close relationships that you could not build if you were limited to direct mail or phone. As a result, the email will increase the retention rate of certain customers, which adds directly to their lifetime value. Emails can be used in viral marketing. What this means is that you can get customers to write to one another and pass your message to other people whom you don t know. The speed of emails permits you to send types of messages that could not be sent by any other medium. Airlines, for example, send weekly messages about the availability of unsold seats at rock-bottom prices. These messages could not be sent by mail because of the time issue, or by phone because of the cost and the annoyance factor. Let s put all these factors together as shown in Table 5-10 to begin to estimate the value of an email name.
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