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ENTRY TECHNIQUES COVERED IN THIS BOOK
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This part of the book explores entry techniques that range from trend-following to countertrend, from endogenous to exogenous, from traditional to exotic, and from simple to complex. Since there are an infinite number of entry models, spatial limitations forced us to narrow our focus and discuss only a subset of the possibilities. We attempted to cover popular methods that are frequently discussed, some of which have been around for decades, but for which there is little objective, supportive evidence. We will systematically put these models to the test to see how well they work. We have also tried to expand upon some of our earlier, published studies of entry models in which readers (primarily of ZMtnicul Analysis of Stocks and Commodities) have expressed great interest.
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Breakouts and Moving Averages
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Traditional trend-following entry models that employ breakouts and moving averages are examined in s 5 and 6, respectively. Breakout entn es are simple and intuitively appealing: The market is bought when prices break above an upper band or threshold. It is sold short when prices break below a lower band or threshold. Operating this way, breakout entries are certain to get the trader on-board any large market movement or trend. The trend-following entries that underlie many popular trading systems are breakout entries. Breakout models differ from one another mainly in how the threshold bands are computed and the actual entry is achieved. Like breakouts, moving averages are alluring in their simplicity and are extremely popular among technical traders. Entries may be generated using moving averages in any of several ways: The market may be entered when prices cross over a moving average, when a faster moving average crosses a slower one, when the slope of a moving average changes direction, or when prices pull back to a moving-average line as they might to lines of support or resistance. Additional variety is introduced by the fact that there are simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, and triangular moving averages, to mention only a few. Since the entry models of many trading systems employ some variation of breakouts or moving averages, it seems important to explore these techniques in great detail.
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Oscillators
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Oscillators are indicators that tend to fluctuate quasi-cyclically within a limited range. They are very popular among technical traders and appear in most charting packages. Entry models based on oscillators are endogenous in nature (they do
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not require anything but market data) and are fairly simple to implement, characteristics they share with breakout and moving-average models. However, breakout and moving-average models tend to enter the market late, often too late, because they are designed to respond to, rather than anticipate, market behavior. In contrast, oscillators anticipate prices by identifying turning points so that entry can occur before, rather than after, the market moves. Since they attempt to anticipate prices, oscillators characteristically generate countertrend entries. Entries are commonly signaled by divergence between an oscillator and price. Divergence is seen when prices form a lower low but the oscillator forms a higher low, signaling a buy; or when prices form a higher high but the oscillator forms a lower high, signaling the time to sell short. A signal line is another way to generate entries. It is calculated by taking a moving average of the oscillator, The trader buys when the oscillator crosses above the signal line and sells short when it crosses below. Although typically used in trading range markets for countertrend entries, an oscillator is sometimes employed in a trend-following manner: Long or short positions might be entered when the Stochastic oscillator climbs above 80 or drops below 20, respectively. Entry models that employ such classic oscillators as Lane s Stochastic, Williams s RSI, and Appel s MACD are studied in 7.
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