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The initial tests address several variations of the channel breakout entry. First examined are close-only channel breakout models, in which the price channels or bands are determined using only closing prices. A model involving breakouts that occur beyond the highest high or lowest low will also be studied. In these models, the price channels approach the traditional notion of support and resistance.
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Test I: Close-Only Channel Breakout with Entry on Market Order at Next Open, No Z ransaction Costs. The rules are: If the current position is either short or flat and the market closes above the highest close of the last n days, then buy tomorrow s open. Likewise, If the current position is either long or flat and the market closes below the lowest close of the preceding n days, then sell (go short at) tomorrow s open. The channel breakout entry model has only one parameter, the look-back (a). The number of contracts to buy or sell (nconrracfs) was chosen to produce, for the market being traded, an effective dollar volatility approximately equal to that of two new S&P 500 contracts at the end of 1998. Exits occur either when a breakout entry reverses an existing position or when the standard exit closes out the trade, i.e., when a money management stop is triggered, a profit target is hit, or the position has been open more than a specified number of days (bars), whichever comes first. The money management stop is computed as the entry price plus (for short positions) or minus (for long positions) some multiple (a parameter, mmsrp) of the 50-bar average true range. Profit target limits are at the entry price plus (long) or minus (short) another multiple (ptlim) of the same average true range. Finally, an exit at close order (a form of market order) is posted when a position has been held for more than a specified number of days (manhold). All exit orders are close-only, i.e., executed only at the close: this restriction avoids ambiguous simulations when testing entries with intrabar limits or stops. Were exits not restricted to the close, such cases would involve the posting of multiple intrabar orders. Simulations become indeterminate and results untrustworthy when multiple intrabar orders are issued: The course of prices throughout the period represented by the bar, and hence the sequence of order executions, is unknown. The average true range (a measure of volatility) is calculated as the mean of the true range of each of a specified number of previous bars (in this case, 50). The true range is the highest of the day s high minus the day s low, the day s high minus the previous day s close, or the previous day s close minus the day s low. Below is a C+ + implementation of the close-only channel breakout entry model mated with the standard exit strategy. When calculating the number of contracts, no correction is explicitly made for the S&P 500 split. The new contract is
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treated as identical to the old one, both by the simulator and by the code. All simulations are, nevertheless, correct under the assumption that the trader (not the simulator) trades two new contracts for every old contract: The simulator is instructed to sell half as many new contracts as it should, but treats these contracts as twice their current size. Limit-locked days are detected by range checking: A zero range (high equal to the low) suggests poor liquidity, and a possibly limitlocked market. Although this detection scheme is not ideal, simulations using it resemble results obtained in actual trading. Compiling the information from the exchanges needed to identify limit-locked days would have been almost impossible; therefore, the zero-range method is used. The code allows re-entry into persistent trends as long as new highs or lows are made.
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// declare local scratch variables static int cb, n, ncontracts, maxhold; static float mlnstp, ptlim, atr;
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