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and models like those tested in the chapter can capture such seasonal ebbs and flows in a potentially profitable manner. Seasonality, as defined herein, has been demonstrated to be worthy of serious consideration. If the kinds of simple entry models illustrated above are elaborated by adding confirmations and by using an exit better than the standard one, some impressive trading results are likely to result. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED a Recurrent seasonal patterns appear to have real predictive validity and are definitely worthy of further study. n The usefulness of seasonal patterns for trading varies from market to market, with certain markets being particularly amenable to seasonal trading. Trading a basket of seasonally reactive markets could be a highly lucrative endeavor. n To obtain the best results, raw seasonal information should be combined with some form of confirmation or trend detection. Making use of additional information can improve the performance of an unadorned seasonal model.
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I n the previous chapter, seasonal rhythms were defined as recurrent phenomena connected to the calendar. Seasonality involves the orbital position and tilt of the earth in relation to the sun. Every year, on approximately the same date, the earth reaches a similar phase in its movement around the sun. Other solar bodies generate similar rhythms, most notably the moon, with its recurrent phases, and sunspot phenomena. In this chapter, market cycles determined by external forces will again be analyzed, but this time the relationship between market behavior and planetary and solar rhythms will be examined.
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Discussion of planetary influences conjures up images of what some regard as astrological nonsense. However, it seems arrogant to dismiss, a priori, the possible infhrence of lunar, solar, and other such forces, simply because of the pervasive belief that astrology (which Webster defines as the pseudo-science which claims to foretell the future by studying the supposed influence of the relative positions of the moon, sun, and stars on human affairs ) is ludicrous. Such beliefs are often based on the absence of knowledge. But what is already known about so-called astrology, especially in the form of planetary and solar effects on earthly events Scientists have demonstrated some correlation between personality and planetary positions. In one study (Mayo, White, and Eysenck, 1978), published in the Journal of Social Psychology, researchers tested the claim that introversion and extroversion are determined by the zodiac sign a person is born under. A personality test was given to 2,324 individuals to determine whether they were introverts or extroverts. The hypothesis was that individuals born under the signs Aries, Gemini,
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Leo, Libra, Sagittarius, and Aquarius were likely to be extroverts, while those under Taurus, Cancer, Virgo, Scorpio, Capricorn, and Pisces, tend to be introverts, The results of the study were significantly consistent with the hypothesis, as well as with other related studies (Gauquelin, Gauquelin, and Eysenck, 1979). It is also known that the moon s gravitational force influences the aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric tides of the earth. The moon has been shown to affect when coral spawn, when oysters open, when certain crimes are likely to be more prevalent, and when lunatics (derived from the Latin word luna, which translates as moon ) become more agitated. Moreover, women give birth and/or ovulate more frequently during the full moon. When faced with the facts, the possibility of the moon influencing market behavior is not so outlandish. Even Larry Williams (1979) found that the prices of Silver, Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Oil rally when the moon is full and drop when the moon is new! Every amateur radio operator knows, sunspots exert a major influence on long distance radio transmission. Sunspots appear as dark spots on the surface of the sun. One theory is that they are produced by peculiarities in the gravitational influences of neighboring planets on the Sun s tidal rhythms. Another theory explains sunspots as due to shifts in the sun s magnetic poles. During high sunspot activity, skip occurs: Short wavelength radio transmissions, which normally carry only as far as line-of-sight, bounce off the ionosphere and may span distances of up to several thousand miles. Many have experienced this phenomenon when watching television: A signal from a distant station will appear superimposed on a local one. Conversely, during low solar activity, long distance communication is much less likely at short wavelengths; anyone trying to achieve DX (long distance communications), will need longer wavelengths. Sunspot activity and solar flares are also correlated with terrestrial magnetic storms that can disrupt sensitive electronics equipment and even knock out power grids. Magnetic storms induced by solar eruptions in March I989 shut down the Hydra-Quebec power system, blacking out parts of Montreal and Quebec for up to nine hours (Space Science Institute, 1996). Changes in solar activity are even suspected of causing major fluctuations in the earth s climate, as when the Little Ice Age occurred in the 1600s after 100 years of attenuated solar activity (Center for Solar and Space Research, 1997). More relevant to traders: Edward R. Dewey, who established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in 1940, believed that there was a relationship between sunspots and industrial production. Perhaps such a relationship is mediated by climatological effects on agriculture, making it worthwhile to examine the correlation between solar activity and agricultural commodity prices. Our interest in sunspots peaked upon noticing that, during 1987, there were only three days when the sunspot number (an index of solar activity) was greater than 100. Two of those days were October 15 and 16! The probability
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of the correspondence between Black Monday and heightened solar activity is less than one in 100. In the section below on Lunar Cycles and Trading, the impact of the lunar phase on prices is examined. The impact of solar activity is examined in Sunspots and Market Activity.
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