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for Long Entry. The chromosome that represented the best solution for long entries at the open contained three genes. Each gene was composed of four numbers and corresponded to a specific rule. The numbers for Gene 1 were 4, 850,65, and 653, which specified an openinterest decline rule (case 4), a look-back of 34, and a threshold of 0.042, respectively. The last number (653) was not used or translated because the rule did not require three blanks to be filled in, only two. If this information is taken and translated into plain language, the rule says that the open interest must decline at least 4.2% over the past 34 bars for the rule to evaluate as TRUE. In other words, the open interest 34 bars ago (relative to the current bar) minus the open interest 1 bar ago, divided by the open interest 34 bars ago, was greater than 0.042. The numbers for Gene 2 were 1, 256, 530, and 709. The fust number (1) specified a simple price comparison mle (case I). When the additional numbers were translated to the correct lookbacks and thresholds, it is apparent that this rule fires (evaluates as TRUE) when the close 3 days ago is greater than the close 14 days ago plus 3.46 times the average true range.
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The numbers for Gene 3 were 5, 940, 47, and 610. Rule template 5 (case 5), which is the open-interest incline rule, was specified by the first number. Fully instantiating this rule reveals that the rule evaluates as TRUE if the market s open interest has risen at least 5.6% in the past 44 days. If the conditions for all three rules, specified by Genes 1 through 3, were met on a given bar, a buy signal was generated. It is interesting that two rules involved open interest, a variable not usually considered in many popular approaches to trading. It is also noteworthy that the two open-interest rules, when put together, seem almost contradictory: The current open interest had to be greater than the open interest 44 bars ago, but less than the open interest 34 bars ago. The model appears to be somewhat trend-following in that a recent closing price had to be greater than an older closing price before an entry was taken. However, time was left for a small pull-back; i.e., the increase in price only had to be observed 3 bars ago, not in the current bar. The set of rules is not one that would be easy to discover in a normal manner, without the aid of a genetic algorithm.
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A similar analysis can be done for the shorts as for the longs. The numbers corresponding to the chromosome that represented the best
solution for short entries at the open were 5, 890, 391, and 532 (Gene 1); 5,705, 760, and 956 (Gene 2); and 10, 163,999, and 196 (Gene 3). When the string of three genes was translated, it was revealed that two rules deal with open interest and one with the MACD oscillator. The first open-interest role states that the open interest 1 bar ago must be at least 38% greater than the open interest 38 bars ago. The second open-interest rule states that the open interest 1 bar ago must be at least 75% greater than the open interest 25 bars ago. The third rule states that the slope of the MACD-with a shorter moving average length of 2 and a longer moving average length of 50-must be down, suggesting a current downward trend. If the conditions for all three rules, specified by the three genes, were met on a given bar, a sell signal was generated. Again, these rules would not have been easily discovered when developing a trading model in a more traditional manner.
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