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Volatility Exits
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A volatility exit depends on recognizing that the level of risk is increasing due to rapidly rising market volatility, actual or potential. Under such circumstances, it is prudent to close out positions and, in so doing, limit exposure. For instance, when volatility suddenly expands on high volume after a sustained trend, a blow-off top might be developing. Why not sell off long positions into the buying frenzy Not only may a sudden retracement be avoided, but the fills are likely to be very good, with slippage working with, rather than against, the trader! Another volatility exit point could be a date that suggests a high degree of risk, e.g., anniversaries of major market crashes: If long positions are exited and the market trends up instead, it is still possible to jump back in. However, if a deep downturn does occur, the long position can be reentered at a much better price! What else constitutes a point of increased risk If an indicator suggests that a trend is about to reverse, it may be wise to exit and avoid the potential reversal. If a breakout system causes a long entry into the S&P 500 to occur several days before the full moon, but lunar studies have shown that the market often drops when the moon is full and the trade is still being held, then it might be a good idea to close the position, thus avoiding potential volatility. Also remember, positions need not be exited all at once. Just a proportion of a multicontract position can be closed out, a strategy that is likely to help smooth out a trader s equity curve.
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Barrier Exits
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A barrier exit is taken when the market touches or penetrates some barrier, such as a point of support or resistance, a trendline, or a Fibonacci retracement level. Barrier exits are the best exits: They represent theoretical barriers beyond which interpretation of market action must be revised, and they often allow very close stops to be set, thereby dramatically reducing losses on trades that go wrong. The trick is to find a good barrier in approximately the right place. For example, a money management stop can serve as a barrier exit when it is placed at a strong support or resistance level, if such a level exists close enough to the entry price to keep potential loss within an acceptable level. The trailing exit also can be a barrier exit if it is based on a trendhne.
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Signal exits occur when a system gives a signal (or indication) that is contrary to a currently held position and the position is closed for that reason. The system generating the signal need not be the same one that produced the signal that initiated
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the trade. In fact, the system does not have to be as reliable as the one used for trade entry! Entries should be conservative. Only the best opportunities should be selected, even if that means missing many potential entry points, Exits, on the other hand, can be liberal. It is important to avoid missing any reversal, even at the expense of a higher rate of false alarms. A missed entry is just one missed opportunity out of many. A missed exit, however, could easily lead to a downsized account! Exits based on pattern recognition, moving average crossovers, and divergences are signal exits. CONSIDERATIONS WHEN EXITING THE MARKET There are a number of issues to take into account when attempting to exit the mar ket. Some orders, such as stops, may result in poor executions and substantial transaction costs due to such factors as gunning and slippage. Other orders, such as limits, may simply not be filled at all. There are also trade-offs to consider; e.g., tight stops might keep losses small but, at the same time, kill potentially winning trades and increase the number of losses, Loose stops allow winning trades to develop, but they do so at the cost of less frequent, but potentially catastrophic, losses. In short, there are aspects to exiting that involve how the orders are placed and how the markets respond to them.
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