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targeted to support mission-critical and latency sensitive applications It must be noted, however, that they will invariably face opposition from the more established MPLS, at least deeper in the Service Provider networks Regulation is limited and expected to remain as such as long as there is competition in the (Carrier Ethernet) market, which appears to be the case, at least in the US However, this variable is difficult and vastly outside the scope and capability of this book, to assess in the context of various countries As Carrier Ethernet begins to reach a critical mass in its march to supplant traditional TDM access technologies (T-1/E-1), however, the regulatory agencies may review it carefully given that it would increasingly become a choke point for broadband access (akin to a telephone line a few decades ago), and may introduce measures to regulate it
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Conclusions on Carrier Ethernet Demand
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The overall conclusions that can be drawn from reviewing the key developments expected in each of the areas are
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Basically, there are promising developments in the areas of Applications, Technology, Fiber Deployment, and Standards Given that most of these are also mutually reinforcing, they will cause aggressive growth in demand for Carrier Ethernet services Existing Substitutes do not appear to pose a major threat; the bigger fear is that of hitherto unknown solutions emerging to address an ostensibly very attractive market in the longer term Regulation, while unknown in its impact (hence, the question mark in Figure 166 and in Table 169), is not likely to be a significant influencer especially when competition is expected to be fierce (benefiting the end user and hence precluding the need for regulatory oversight) Given the intense competition amongst Service Providers, it will likely make the (Service Provider) economics less attractive (since more competition usually means a reduction in end-user pricing, which in turn reduces the profitability for Service Providers) Because profitability is a key performance criterion for Service Providers, it is to be expected that Service Providers will try and reduce the cost structure associated with delivering Carrier Ethernet, while incorporating as many of the underlying feature attributes of Carrier Ethernet as possible This will certainly lead to a corresponding evolution in the existing solutions delivering Carrier Ethernet
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Evolution of Solutions Delivering Carrier Ethernet
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Over the longer run, especially as the market matures, it is reasonable to assume that the solutions will evolve in the manner illustrated in Figure 168 The key points of this evolution are
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Multiple solutions for Carrier Ethernet will continue to be actively deployed over the next several years, but it is likely that the number of such solutions will be reduced
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Evolution of Carrier Ethernet Solutions
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Normalized Feature/Cost Analysis
Preferred long-term solution (Lower cost, higher functionality) Longer-term solution (Higher cost, higher functionality)
Future market requirement
MPLS RPR
Carrier Ethernet Support
Current market requirement Short-term solution (Lower cost, lower functionality)
Bridging SONET WiMAX WDM FSO PON TDM
Short-term solution (Higher cost, lower functionality)
Cu HFC
Cost of Delivery
Figure 168 Possible evolution of Carrier Ethernet Delivery Solutions
As the overall trend to packet-based applications continues to accelerate and voice applications (the mainstay of the many legacy solutions) are also migrating to packet infrastructure, Service Providers will increasingly find the prospect of maintaining legacy networks less attractive As competition intensifies and price pressure correspondingly increases, Service Providers will have to move to more economically efficient infrastructures to protect profitability The solutions that will coexist will do so for a variety of reasons, most notably because there is no silver bullet, ie, no single solution that addresses the multitude of real-life deployment scenarios economically
Carrier Ethernet solutions, however, will converge toward a Bridging/Switching solution especially in the Access/MANs This class of solutions will likely also integrate other technologies such as WDM, FSO, and so on The situation in the WAN is less clear
Bridging/Switching Layer 2 solutions form the most efficient approach to deploying Carrier Ethernet, as noted earlier Specifically, they are perhaps the most optimized, native Carrier Ethernet solutions that will support the host of E-Line and E-LAN services With fiber deployment accelerating rapidly in the US and elsewhere, such solutions will become the natural choice for broadband applications
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