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Less than 10 means you are getting less performance than planned against the schedule; in other words, you are performing at a rate that is 83 percent of your target schedule Less than 10 means you are getting less cost performance for each dollar spent (for example, in this case, you re getting 86 cents for every dollar spent)
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Schedule Performance SPI = EV / PV Index (SPI) SPI = 2,500 / 3,000 = 083 (Note that 083 is rounded If the calculation uses more decimal places, the results will vary) Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI = EV / AC CPI = 2,500 / 2,900 = 086 (Note that 086 is rounded If the calculation uses more decimal places, the ETC results will vary)
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Table 7-9
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Now that you have key information about your project, you can use the results of the EVM calculations to apply the results of CPI and SPI toward the future Here are the key questions that need to be answered before you forecast the future cost and schedule performance for the remainder of the project:
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Is the CPI (sometimes called run rate or burn rate ) representative of what the project will cost Is the SPI a true representation of the performance you can expect as you go forward with the project
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The answer to these questions will help you decide if you need to adjust the schedule or cost due to unforeseen problems or if you need to take correction action to get the team and budget back on target The next tool and technique in the Control Costs process is forecasting It is important to forecast the future cost and performance early and throughout the project life cycle The components of earned value for forecasting are
Estimate to compete (ETC), which answers the question of what is the remaining cost from this point forward to finish the project Estimate at completion (EAC), which answers the question of what will be the total cost of the project be based on our new ETC Variance at completion (VAC), which answers the question of what is the amount over or under the original budget at completion (BAC) based on the latest cost information
See Table 7-10 for the forecast calculations for the ice hockey arena wall project EVM Component
Estimate at Completion (EAC)
Formula or Results
EAC = BAC / CPI $4,000 / 086 = $4,651
Comments
The new estimated budget at the completion of the project based on EVM at this time Note: There are several ways to calculate EAC (see Table 7-5), and the decision should be based on the level of confidence in the actual cost (AC) and other factors
Estimate to Complete (ETC) Variance at Completion (VAC)
ETC = EAC AC $4,651 $2,900 = $1,751 VAC = BAC EAC $4,000 $4,651 = $651
How much do you anticipate you need to spend to complete the project Based on the information available, you expect to be $651 over budget at the end of the project Again, minus is bad
Table 7-10 Estimating Future Cost (ETC, EAC, and VAC)
7: Project Cost Management
In the case of our ice hockey project, with the estimated cost to complete (ETC) of $1,751 added to what we have already spent (AC) of $2,900, we can forecast the new estimate at completion (EAC) for the entire project to be $4,651 The overrun variance at completion (VAC) is $651 dollars The next step is to present the status and forecast amounts to the project sponsor along with your action plan to either get back on track or the justification for additional funding As you would expect, the project s forecast gets more and more accurate the closer to the end of the project (Go figure There goes that progressive elaboration again)
Accurate forecasting is essential to managing the costs on your project Some companies go so far as to hold the PM accountable for an accurate project forecast (within 10%, for example) The reason is clear the more accurate the forecast for each project, the more accurate the financial department can forecast across all their projects You can see this at the corporate level each quarter when stock analysts predict (forecast) a company s earnings It doesn t matter if the company made a profit and grew their revenue, if they missed the analysts forecasts (expectations), especially if the number is lower than expected, then the company s stock will often go down
To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
The next tool and technique in the Control Costs process is TCPI Basically, TCPI provides a way to calculate how much work it would take (future required cost efficiency needed to achieve the original approved budget at completion) If the TCPI calculation is greater than 10 late in the project life cycle, this means the chances of being able to get back to the original baseline budget are not likely As shown in the previous Table 7-6 this can be calculated using the following formula: TCPI = (BAC EV) (BAC AC)
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