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Here are a few of the tools and techniques used in this process: Discussed earlier in the
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Risk probability and impact assessment matrix Probability and Impact Matrix section Risk data quality assessment results Risk categorization categories
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Categorized by source of risk (use the RBS) or other Near-term response strategy for higher impact risks
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Outputs The only output of this process is updates to the risk register, based on any new information acquired The risk register can also include causes of risk, near-term risk response activities, trend information that may be an indicator or trigger for potential risks, and any watch lists of lower priority risks
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4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
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The Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process is the numerical view of the effect of the (prioritized) risk events You assign a numerical rating to only the highest impact risks (sometimes referred to as the amount-at-stake risks ) The purpose of a numerical rating is to determine which risks warrant a response The list of risks should get shorter and shorter after each wave of analysis Clearly, you don t have enough time or money to respond to all the risks identified The qualitative and quantitative analysis helps narrow the field to a manageable number based on priority
11: Project Risk Management
This process presents a quantitative (less subjective) approach to making decisions in the presence of uncertainty
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Depending on the nature or lack of complexity of the project, you may not focus on this process as a separate activity It may be consolidated with the qualitative analysis (or at least during the first wave of the process) Quantitative analysis includes the following:
Additional investigation of risks that are rated high for probability and/or impact Further definition of the type, source, or category of risk Determining the type of quantitative analysis to be used the type of probability distribution (normal, triangular, beta, and so on), statistical data, how the data is collected, how the data is tested, and so on Sensitivity analysis determining which risks have the biggest impact (amount at stake) Expected monetary value (EMV) or the results of Monte Carlo simulations (or other computer simulations) to determine the possible cost/impact to the project
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
One of the big questions that always comes up when attempting to manage risk is, What s it going to cost One estimate that can be used to determine this is expected monetary value (EMV) The formula is simple: EMV = P * I (probability times impact) EMV should be estimated for each work package on the WBS (see Table 11-4 for an example)
Work Package
A (Zamboni failure) B (inaccurate painting of the sub-floor for ice hockey) C (failure of the cooling system to freeze the ice)
Probability
20% 30% 50%
Impact
$10,000 $28,000 $12,000
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
$2,000 $8,400 $6,000
Table 11-4 EMV Calculations
PMP Certification: A Beginner s Guide
Monte Carlo Analysis
Monte Carlo analysis is a computer simulation used to determine possible outcomes by using random numbers Many insurance and financial institutions use this software to run actuarial tables and what-if scenarios for the cost of premiums, retirement, and investment forecasts The Boeing 777 was tested extensively using Monte Carlo simulation software for everything from wing strength to flight capability after a bird strike to the engines For information only (as these steps are built into the software application), here are the basic steps involved in the Monte Carlo simulator:
1 Assess the range for the variables and determine the probability distribution 2 Select a random value for each variable 3 Run a deterministic analysis 4 Repeat steps 2 and 3 many times to obtain probability distribution
You should know the following regarding Monte Carlo analysis for the PMI exam:
Computer-based software used to quantify the overall risk to the project Evaluates the overall risk for the project shown in a probability distribution Can provide probability estimates for the project to complete on time or on budget Provides the probability of any activity being on the critical path Takes into account path convergence Translates uncertainties into impact probability on the total project
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