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effort and cost If size is estimated accurately, effort is usually estimated accurately (about half of projects) or is underestimated (about one-third of projects) If size is underestimated, effort usually is, too (about 60 percent of projects) With a 10 percent threshold and size estimated accurately: effort is accurate in 44 percent of cases and underestimated in 39 percent With a 20 percent threshold and size estimated accurately: effort is accurate in 59 percent of cases and underestimated in 28 percent With a 10 percent threshold and size underestimated: effort is underestimated in 62 percent With a 20 percent threshold and size underestimated: effort is underestimated in 57 percent Interestingly, no relationship exists at all between actual project delivery rate and the accuracy of the estimates You might expect that projects delivered ahead of schedule, or with less effort than estimated, would have low (that is, good) PDR, but there is no indication of this Projects delivered in line with their estimates had a wide range of PDRs
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Note There is no relationship between actual project delivery rate
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(productivity) and the accuracy of the estimate
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Estimation Techniques
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Size estimates are usually based on a data model, often involving a CASE tool, a functional specification, analogy with a previous project, or on a Use Case model For delivery date, effort, and cost: About one-third of the projects use only work breakdown estimation 10 to 15 percent of the projects base the estimate only on a functional specification 15 to 30 percent of the projects use both 18 percent of the projects use neither; instead they use lifecycle models or tools Fixed cost determines the cost estimate in 15 percent of the projects The delivery date is imposed externally in 30 percent of projects ( Management directive, 22 percent; legal requirement, 6 percent; and End user business goals or similar, 2 percent)
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Software estimates: how accurate are they
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If a size estimate is available, it is usually used to help estimate delivery date, effort, and/or cost If no size estimate is available, work breakdown estimation or management directive generally determines the estimate delivery date, effort, and cost There is no association between other project attributes (organization type, development type, and so on) and the estimation techniques used In most cases, there is little relationship between which estimating techniques are used and how accurate the estimates are What evidence there is suggests that estimates based on a functional specification slightly outperform work breakdown techniques
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Note Management directive predetermines the delivery date in 22 percent
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of the projects
Individual Estimates
In this section, we analyze each of the four types of estimate: how often projects are underestimated and overestimated, what overruns or underruns are typical, what types of projects are likely to be overestimated or underestimated, and so on The samples analyzed here are smaller than the full set of 850 projects Some projects contained information on the estimation techniques used, but did not give the estimates themselves Of the remaining projects that provide at least one estimate, few give all four estimates
Effort Estimates
Data is available for 581 projects Effort is usually underestimated: 19 percent overestimated effort by at least 10 percent; 11 percent overestimated effort by at least 20 percent; 3 percent overestimated effort by at least 50 percent 36 percent estimated effort to within 10 percent of the actual value; 56 percent estimated effort to within 20 percent of the actual value; 78 percent estimated effort to within 50 percent of the actual value 45 percent underestimated effort by at least 10 percent (median error is 40 percent); 33 percent underestimated effort by at least 20 percent (median error is 67 percent); 19 percent underestimated effort by at least 50 percent (median error is 98 percent) Across the whole 581 projects, the mean error is an underestimate of 50 percent The median is an underestimate of 6 percent The largest error saw effort underestimated by a factor of over 80 times
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