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Table 10-2 Time and cost estimation using modi cation of the Wide-Band Delphi method.
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Schedule or trigger event: A need to create an approximate cost estimate quickly in the early stages of a project. Brief description: This method is a structured brainstorming approach using a team of subject-matter experts guided by a Delphi facilitator. Inputs: A scope statement, or a rough scope statement with a range of possibilities. Outputs: A range of estimated duration for the project. A range of estimated e ort for the project. A range of estimated cost for the project. Notes on actions to re ne the estimates and address risk. Tools: A meeting room with appropriate facilities for facilitation, taking of meeting notes, and interactive brainstorming. Veri cation (QC): Veri cation within the project can be rst against other estimation methods through time gap management. On project completion, the Delphi results should be compared to actual project duration, e ort, and cost. Any discrepancies should contribute to future improvement of the Delphi method. Process: Unless otherwise stated, all actions are taken by the Delphi facilitator. 1. Organize meeting. The project manager creates a Delphi meeting including every expert you can get on the technical and project management aspects of the project you want to estimate. It is possible to use the same Delphi team as used for scope estimation, though you may want to make some changes to the team based on availability and skill. Deliver the scope statement in writing (in advance, if possible).
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CHAPTER 10 Planning and Estimation
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Table 10-2 Time and cost estimation using modi cation of the Wide-Band Delphi method (Continued).
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2. Presentation of scope. Present the scope of the project; if there are any uncertain elements, present a range of scopes, minimum, plus possible requirements, up to the maximum scope. Answer any questions that any expert in the room can answer de nitively. (In this process, we assume our experts are the best we can get during the session. We trust what they say.) Everyone takes notes, and one or two people with laptops do nothing but take notes. Their notes are distributed to the Delphi team members. 3. First round of estimation. Each member of the Delphi team works separately from the scope plan plus his or her notes to build time and cost estimates. They use their own methods and forms. Each one prepares a presentation of their time and cost estimates to the group as a whole. The estimates will be ranges. The time estimate will include both e ort and duration. The team members will prepare estimates for both the minimum and the maximum scope if the scope is uncertain. 4. First presentations. Each Delphi team member presents his or her estimates to the team. Everyone takes notes, using the presenter s expertise to modify his or her own plan. Questions are asked for clari cation or expansion, but there is no e ort to improve the presenter s own plan. Instead, each presenter improves his or her own plan through listening to other presenters and noting their comments. 5. Second round of planning. Everyone takes the notes from all the other presentations, and comments on his or her own presentation, and improves his or her own presentation. 6. Second presentations. Each person presents his or her revised estimates. You work with an assistant to build a wall-sized comparison chart of all estimates. (Giant Post-It notes are good tools, or you can work with a diagramming tool and a data projector.) At the end of each presentation, questions are asked for clari cation. You verify your comparison chart with each presenter. 7. Evaluation. It is highly likely that all estimates are already within 5% of one another. If so, you have good enough estimates for now. If you are close to 5%, you can lead a team brainstorming session to resolve di erences, focusing on contributions from the Delphi team members who proposed the highest and lowest estimates. 8. Iteration. If the estimates are not yet close to a 5% variance, have a brainstorming session identifying remaining issues, but not trying to resolve the di erences. Then run a third round of planning and presentation, and re-evaluate. In the third-round evaluation, have those who di er on key points work them out with each other with the help of the Delphi team. 9. Wrap-up. Identify constraints used and assumptions made by most or all team members. Identify di erent approaches or assumptions regarding drivers, constraints, and degrees of freedom. Verify the estimates with the team. 10. Results. The Delphi team has provided a set of estimates, or two (one for the minimum scope and the other for the maximum scope). Each set of estimates contains a range for duration, a range for e ort, and a range for cost. 11. Additional brainstorming (optional). While the team is together, you can run a brainstorming session, or an additional Delphi series, to get a risk plan.
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