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Personal income taxes and various government transfers automatically change the level of net tax revenues when the economy moves away (or
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CHAPTER 6: Fiscal Policy
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toward) the full-employment level of output. For example, government collects smaller revenues from income taxes when output decreases; lump-sum tax revenues also fall when output decreases because of increased government transfer payments to individuals in the form of unemployment insurance bene ts, food stamps, and other government assistance programs. Because of such automatic changes in net tax revenues, consumer disposable income is not completely dependent on the level of output, consumer spending is more stable over the business cycle, and the amplitude of economic uctuations is lessened.
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Built-in stabilizers only help to mitigate economic uctuations, not to correct them.
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A federal de cit exists when government outlays exceed revenues. The structural de cit is the de cit that exists when output is at its full-employment level; a cyclical de cit is the amount of the de cit that is attributable to output being below its full-employment level. In Figure 6-2, yf represents full-employment output. Here the economy s structural de cit is $200 ($500 in government spending less $300 in net tax receipts). Note that the de cit increases to $300 when output declines to y1, which is not surprising since there are smaller tax receipts and larger government transfers at output levels below yf . Thus, at output y1, the $300 de cit consists of a $200 structural de cit and a $100 cyclical de cit. The public debt is the amount of interest-bearing debt issued by the federal government at a given point in time and arises from previous yearly de cits. Some argue that a large public debt will result in default and federal bankruptcy. The federal government will not default, however, since it has the power to print money and the power to tax. The government can also repay a maturing debt obligation by issuing a new debt obligation. However, due to possible redistribution effects, there is concern about the large increases in the U.S. federal debt. A rapidly rising debt level necessitates larger interest payments. If the government increases
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60 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS
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Figure 6-2 taxes to pay its higher interest expense, it could cause a redistribution of income from those who pay taxes to those who have substantial wealth.
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There is a difference between the de cit and the debt. The former occurs yearly and the latter is an accumulation of the former de cits over time.
Implementing Fiscal Policy
Since discretionary changes in tax revenues and government spending have a multiplier effect upon equilibrium output, it would appear that government has the ability to maintain full-employment output by manipulating its net tax revenues and/or spending. Fiscal policy, however, is not as easily implemented or as successful as rst suggested. Suppose a recessionary gap exists. Will Congress and the administration agree on
CHAPTER 6: Fiscal Policy
an immediate course of action In reality, an action lag is likely to occur because of con icting priorities. For example, some individuals may advocate increased government expenditures on public goods, such as the rebuilding of roads, while others may prefer government expenditures on services such as public education. Another group may advocate expanded welfare services or reduced tax rates for middle-income workers. And once a scal plan of action is reached and implemented, will Congress and the administration be prepared to scale down or eliminate any of these measures should the scal stimulus eventually become excessive Besides political priorities, we must also recognize that economic activity exists in a dynamic, changing environment, where other variables may change. Thus, while a scal stimulus may close a recessionary gap and bring the economy to full employment, ceteris paribus, it is possible that investment and/or net export spending may increase after the scal stimulus is implemented, which would result in an in ationary gap. In addition, economists are uncertain about the output level at which full employment exists and have been unable to establish precise values for multipliers for the U.S. economy.
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