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Finding Information for Valuations
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EXHIBIT 7-4
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printouts listing Cisco s price $14.95, its value $15.57, and several other metrics, which included relative value, relative safety, relative timing, VST (value, safety, timing), along with a recommendation which in this case was buy. The strength of the VectorVest free service is that it is easy to use and you receive an intrinsic value. The bad news is that you can only use it for three valuations per day, there is no interactivity, and the valuation process is a black box. You have no idea how the intrinsic value is calculated. In the section that follows, we segment the information that you need to run a valuation into three categories: the easy-to-find company info, the company inputs requiring estimation, and the cost of capital inputs.
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We continue with the Cisco example valuation. The first order of business is to use our computer to tap into the Internet via our Penn State Internet connection. We use the Microsoft Internet Explorer browser to go to the Cisco Systems corporate Web site (www.cisco.com/ ). We enter Cisco s Home Page (Exhibit 7-5), and click on the Investor Relations (Exhibit 7-6) link. Another click on the Financials/SEC Filings link (Exhibit 7-7), gives us access to the 2002 Financial Statements section, which is where we want to be.
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EXHIBIT 7-5
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Finding Information for Valuations
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EXHIBIT 7-6
Cisco Systems Investor Relations Link
In 5, we previously printed the following sections: the consolidated statements of operations (Exhibit 5-2), the consolidated balance sheet (Exhibit 5-4), and the consolidated statements of cash flows (Exhibit 5-3). Here is how we used those reports.
Income Statement Information
To run the FCFF valuation approach, we needed to calculate ratios taken from information provided from Cisco s income statement, which it calls consolidated statements of operations, as shown in Exhibit 5-2, for the fiscal year ending 7/27/2002. From this statement, we took the following information: net revenues, operating costs and expenses, income before provision for taxes, provision for taxes, and weighted average shares outstanding basic and diluted. The income statement has information for three fiscal years 2002, 2001, and 2000. Three years of data (as opposed to one) helps us better understand the corporation, how consistently it has performed, and
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EXHIBIT 7-7
Cisco Systems Financials/SEC Filings Link
what trends in revenue growth rate or net operating margins it has experienced. The information from the income statement that we needed to value Cisco is shown in Table 7-1.
Balance Sheet Information
For the Cisco valuation, we calculated ratios based upon information from Cisco s balance sheet, as shown in Exhibit 5-4. From this statement we took the following information related to working capital: accounts receivable, inventories, accounts payable, total current assets, and total current liabilities. We also took information relating to Cisco s short-term asset/liability position balances, and the amount of debt (book value) and preferred stock (book value) outstanding.
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TABLE 7-1
Cisco Systems Income Statement Information
(in millions of dollars) 2002 2001 $22,293 $21,217 0$1,076 4.83% 2000 $18,928 $14,209 0$4,719 24.93% 16.41% 0$2,710 0,0$817 30.15% $874 0,0$140 n.a. 0$4,343 0$1,675 38.57% 34.36% 0$7,301 0$7,447 0$7,196 0$7,196 0$6,917 0$7,438
Total revenues Total operating costs and expenses Operating Income NOPM (%) 3-year average NOPM (%) Income before provision for taxes Provision for income taxes Effective income tax rate 3-year average tax rate (%) Weighted average shares out basic Weighted average shares out diluted
$18,915 $15,232 0$3,683 19.47%
The balance sheet has information for two fiscal years 2002 and 2001. The balance sheet information that we used to value Cisco is shown in Table 7-2.
Cash Flow Statement Information
The final pieces of cash flow information to value Cisco s common stock came from its statement of cash flow (Exhibit 5-3). From this statement, we took the following information related to cash flow depreciation, investment in property, plant, and equipment. The cash flow statement has information for three fiscal years 2002, 2001, and 2000. Cash flow statement information that we needed to value Cisco is shown in Table 7-3. The information that we obtained from annual and quarterly reports gave us valuation inputs relating to revenue, cash flow data, short-term assets, short-term liabilities, amount of shares outstanding, and (book, not market) value of debt and preferred stock outstanding. These reports also gave us the historic information that is helpful in estimating cash flow inputs, such as the revenue growth rate, net
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